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Britain’s General Elections to Be Announced during…You bet it!

By: Sarah JonesApril 23, 2019

Not only the Brexit has occupied the minds of Europeans and neighbours, but the British themselves are willing to gamble on their own misfortunes. Or, perhaps, fortunes for other innovative Brits. Paddy Power, William Hill, BetVictor, Ladbrokes are among the bookmakers who have taken the opportunity on making some profits before the final verdict of the British Parliament. And returns are just so small and secure for some options that there must be a natural force coming soon and hitting the whole Britain for someone to stop the steps that are going to be resulting the Brexit and the UK General Elections in May.

Signs in front of Westminster Pointing Out the Opposite Directions for EU and the Brexit

The After-Brexit Odds that You Do Not Want to Miss!

Ah, Brits are a well-renowned nation for its gambling habits. We gamble on sports, horse racing, on lucky tickets from the lotto, video games and many more. Apparently, the habit of gambling is so wide-spread that we even bet on our own politics. Conceivably, politicians have also had a guess about the Brexit and tossed a coin. Or, is it the way they take all their essential decisions? Nonetheless, savvy casinos and turf accountants have grasped the opportunity to introduce a new category in-between the usual sports and MMA betting. Some casino operators have directly addressed the issue ‘Brexit’ while others have been more considered and applied the term ‘Politics’.

And here is all the hype. So, political odds are distributed in a few categories with their consecutive probabilities. If we arrange the events by the date of occurrence, we need to begin with the Brexit poll. And I should say some proposals are hilarious. For instance, ‘Will the UK government announce food rationing?’, the betting odds in Paddy Power are 12 to 1. Well, it’s profoundly unlikely to happen. But if it does you would be the lucky winner. For each £1 bet, you would earn £25 as net gains. Yet what a stroke of luck that would be, if there is nothing to buy in the store!

Brexit Special Odds Provided by Paddy Power

But, let’s follow back on past times. The entire exit process started two years ago when government officials called for Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty, forming the constitutional basis of the EU. Two years later, Britain was supposed to leave the EU on the 29th of March 2019. However, it seems like someone in the parliament has got cold feet and the withdraw has been rejected 3 times so far as UK officials cannot find common ground.

Therefore, the new exit date has been extended to the 12th of April. Thus, bookmakers have given gamblers the following betting alternatives for the day after the upcoming Brexit – the UK leaves with a Deal, the UK leaves with a No Deal, Article 50 extended –a new leave date set up which according to the words of Theresa May would be 30th of June (New Update: Obviously, she got the extension until October, so everything is possible) and Article 50 revoked – a slight optimism that after all that British theatre, the UK would remain in the EU. Ha, funny, isn’t it? The political divorces, though! What a thing they are! The following odds are delivered by William Hill casino.

UK Brexit Status on 13th of April: Odds General Election in Year: Odds Parliament Form after General Election Odds Most Seats After General Election Bookmakers
EU Left with No Deal 5/1 2019 8/15 No overall majority 4/5 Discover Here!
EU Left with a Deal 40/1 2020 4/1 Labour Majority 9/4 5/6 Discover Here!
Article 50 Extended 1/25 2021 16/1 Conservative Majority 11/4 5/6 Discover Here!
Article 50 Revoked 10/1 2022 and later 5/2 Liberal Democrats Majority 80/1 80/1 Discover Here!

What Would Be the Status of the UK on the 13th of April?

Although, odds may vary among various bookies, here is the outcome of the first set of grave question. Bets are all single.

  • Brexit with No Deal – 5/1 odds – for a single bet of a pound, the return is £5. The odds seem like a reasonable deal.
  • Brexit with a Deal – 40/1 odds – £40 to win in case of a Brexit with a mutual agreement from the EU. You would not believe it, would you?!
  • Article 50 Extended to the 30th of June – the promised payback is 0.4p for this bet. Not an attractive option for the EU, although Mrs May insists on it.
  • Article 50 Revoked – £11 gain if the Brexit is cancelled and everyone calms down.

When Will the General Election Come to Turn in the UK?

  • 2019 – the odds (8/15) are moderately equal, the probability to happen in 2019 is high, as the pay-out is very low. Only 0.53p on a single £1 stacked. That’s not even worth the pound.
  • 2020 – it is a reasonable time but still not as likely as 2019. It seems bettors have greater confidence that the general elections would be in 2019. Well, if there are elections in 2019, they must be scheduled for the 2nd of May, only a few weeks away.
  • 2021 – if we had to judge the probability of the general elections happening in two years, there is very little chance for that. Though, if you figure it out, the pay-out is satisfying. £16 return on a £1 single bet. Nonetheless, you may still need to wait for 2 years until the elections are announced to receive your profits.
  • 2022 – the elections are either happening in 2020 or 3 years later in 2022. It is an attainable deadline as general elections are held every 5 years during the first Thursday of May. And it appears the next general elections, of course, if they do not occur in 2019, are scheduled for 5th of May 2022.

Which Will Be the Ruling Party after the General Elections Poll?

  • No majority at all – meaning that there is not a single party that would control 326 seats out of 650 in the House of Commons. Meanwhile, if there are isn’t a party to form the majority, the parliament is described as ‘hung’. The last time that the parliament consisted of a few leading parties and no majority was in 2010.
  • Labour Majority vs Conservative Majority – no prevailing party here. They both have equal chances of taking the most of all available seats in the parliament. It goes the same as for the Brexit votes. Currently, the Conservative MPs are approximately 314 MPs while Labour MPs are 245. The percentage of Brexit votes also show very small differences in people’s opinion. It is like the entire Britain is divided into two camps.
  • Liberal Democrats vs UKIP Majority – both parties are highly questionable to have a voice in taking the decisions.

Making Up Your Mind about Political Odds

Should you think differently, you are free to make your bets and anticipate the best. On the other hand, start saving some cash as you never know what the future may hold after the official Brexit date.

  • No, it’s not next week, Jerry. It’s the week after.
  • Are you sure?
  • It is certain as death and taxes.